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主流投資者看好STVS,股價即將突破!

世界名人网记者TINA综合报道          于 November 08, 2013 at 16:48:23:

John Persinos的博文中寫到:華盛頓激烈的政治戰打擊了就業,削弱了國家領導人的支持率,受此影響,消費者信心一直在搖擺不定。然而,消費者信心的恢復是富有彈性的,一旦信心恢復,消費者就會繼續花錢購物,包括買家居和辦公傢俱。其中,一支小盤股——諾華傢俱(Nova LifeStyle)(股票代碼:STVS)將因此受益。

STVS是一家快速發展的現代傢俱製造商,主要設計並生產沙發、餐廳套裝、櫃子、辦公傢俱、餐具櫃和各種配件。STVS產品的主要市場在美國、中國及歐洲,品牌包括Diamond Sofa,Colorful World,Giorgio Mobili,NOVA QWIK,和Bright Swallow International。

公司有700位全職員工。通過專營店在美國銷售,通過60個獨立零售商和分銷商在中國銷售,此外,公司還在中國運營一家網店。線上銷售提供了更高的利潤空間,也吸引了年輕人群。

經濟復蘇會給STVS在今年乃至明年注入增長動力。美國傢俱生產預計在2013年增長2.1%,在2014年增長7.2%。

美國勞工部公佈,9月就業人數僅增加了148,000人。這意味著就業動能的減弱,這會打擊美國購物者的信心。但是在復蘇時期消費欲的本質有時也會搖擺,結果就會反彈。

節假日購物潮

每到節假日,美國消費者支出的增長都會脫穎而出。根據美國零售聯合會預測,2013年10月份的假日銷售額將較2012年出現2.4-3.9%的增長。而節假日銷售額可以占到全年零售額的40%,這將為類似於諾華的公司注入增長動力。

據美國商務部報導,9月耐用品訂單上漲了3.7%,大幅高於8月的0.2%。而政府定義的耐用品使用壽命至少為三年,很明顯,諾華的產品就屬於這一類。

此外,從住宅建築的最近數據來看,新建房屋許可、新屋開工以及完工均處於上升通道內。

諾華市值8000萬美元,雖然風險高於大盤股,但卻能為投資者提供更高的回報。目前該股的靜態市盈率為14.4,而傢俱裝飾業的行業平均靜態市盈率為37.8,表明STVS十分便宜。

STVS是2011年由Nova Furniture和Diamond Sofa合併而成。而Diamond的分銷零售商包括了巴菲特Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) (BRK.B)控股的Nebraska Furniture Mart。

Nebraska Furniture Mart目前處於擴張中,特別是在德州等機遇大的地區。而在德州,Nebraska Furniture Mart建立了價值10億美元的零售基地,這將顯著提升STVS的營收。

在2012年,諾華私募了560萬美元,並獲得800萬美元的融資額度,以建立新的中國工廠,為宜家中國生產物美價廉的傢俱。

2013年4月,諾華收購明燕國際集團,而明燕2012財年營收為1300萬美元。此次交易,擴大了諾華的全球影響力,開銷卻很低。

今年4月,STVS公佈2012財年的營收,為6630萬美元,相較於2011年的4320萬美元大幅增長了53.6%。

諾華北美銷售同比增加了1130萬美元,中國銷售則增加了680萬美元,而中國銷售則占到了公司去年總增長的78.5%。

從其季報來看,公司也遵循著相同的軌跡。營收從截至3月31日當季的1490萬美元增至截至6月30日當季的1910萬美元。同期,毛利潤從320萬美元增至380萬美元。淨收入從117萬美元增至118萬美元。

因為中國在電子商務方面快速發展,據福雷斯特研究公司,到2015年中國每年的線上零售銷售將達到1594億美元,2010年為488億美元。所以,STVS也在拓展其在中國電商中的市場份額。

此外,對如STVS的消費類股另一大利好就是,因為中國政府的政策鼓勵國內消費,並且從以往經濟依賴於出口轉變。

8月13日,公司宣佈在8月5日已經提交了向納斯達克轉板的申請。如果獲納斯達克批准,STVS就能得到機構持有的資格,因此現在存在很大的上升空間。

買者自負

注意:STVS是一支小盤股,較易受到傢俱製造業迴圈波動的影響。STVS的流通盤只有810萬股。然而,這同樣有優勢,因為小盤股上漲得也快。

公司面對巨大的競爭對手,諸如HNI Corp(HNI),該公司市值17.2億美元,不太會受經濟波動的影響。然而,HNI的市盈率為29.8,股價要高出STVS很多,因此,投資者需要出更多錢卻只能帶來更少的增長空間。

綜上所述,消費者可支配收入不斷增長,希望借此找到高增長股票的激進投資者應該把握STVS的機會。相較於公司的發展前景,這個小盤傢俱股大大被低估了。STVS應該會讓投資者坐享收益。

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STVS連續四天從近期$4元下方開始反彈,震盪走高,昨天小幅回落僅僅有2000股的成交量,對趨勢不會造成實質性影響。

“華爾街午間新聞”分析團隊認為,STVS突破點@4.25! 突破後STVS必然瘋狂上漲!

Consumer confidence is wavering, as bitter political warfare in Washington, DC erodes job creation and the approval ratings of the nation's elected leaders. However, the recovery is proving resilient enough for consumers to continue opening their wallets for discretionary purchases, including home and office furnishings.

One small-cap stock is poised to benefit from this trend: Nova LifeStyle(OTC:STVS), based in Commerce, California.

Nova LifeStyle is a fast-growing designer and manufacturer of modern furniture, primarily sofas, dining room sets, cabinets, office furnishings, entertainment consoles, cupboards, and various accessories.

Nova's products are manufactured in the U.S., Europe and Asia and marketed under such brands as Diamond Sofa, Colorful World, Giorgio Mobili, NOVA QWIK, and Bright Swallow International.

With 700 full-time employees, Nova sells its brand-name products via franchise stores in the U.S. and internationally, as well as to about 60 unaffiliated retail stores and distributors in China.

The company also operates an online store in China, a country that's home to burgeoning e-commerce activity. Online offerings provide higher profit margins and also attract a younger demographic that's furnishing their "starter" homes.

Nova sells its products around the world but it's emphasizing emerging markets such as China, where a rising middle class is increasingly trying to emulate the "good life" of the West.

Economic recovery will fuel Nova's growth for the rest of the year and well into 2014. According to the Business and Institutional Furniture Manufacturer's Association, U.S. furniture production is projected to increase by 2.1 percent and 7.2 percent in 2013 and 2014, respectively.

To be sure, the U.S. Labor Department reported that the U.S. economy added just 148,000 jobs in September, indicating a loss of employment momentum that's dispiriting for American shoppers. But it's the nature of consumer sentiment to sometimes vacillate during a recovery, only to bounce back.

The Holiday Shopping Frenzy

On a year-to-date basis, the Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLY) has returned 34.4 percent, compared to 25.7 percent for the S&P 500. Despite the recent hiccup in consumer sentiment, shoppers are still hitting the stores-activity that should pick-up during the perennial holiday shopping frenzy.

US consumer spending is a growth driver that comes to the fore every holiday season. The National Retail Federation projected in October that holiday sales will rise between 2.4 percent and 3.9 percent in 2013 compared to 2012. The holiday season can account for up to 40 percent of annual retail sales. This uptick in sales will drive growth for companies such as Nova.

The U.S. Commerce Department reported that orders for durable goods rose 3.7 percent in September, higher than the 0.2 percent gain in August. The government defines durable goods as items designed to last at least three years-and Nova's products certainly fall under this category.

Moreover, according to the recent data on residential construction from the U.S. Census Bureau, new building permits, housing starts and completions are on an upward trajectory.

Nova has a market cap of about $80 million, which makes it riskier than its large-cap brethren but which also means it offers greater upside potential. The stock sports a 12-month trailing price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 14.4, which is a distinct bargain compared to the trailing P/E of 37.8 for its industry of home furnishings and fixtures.

Nova is the result of a 2011 merger between Nova Furniture and Diamond Sofa. Diamond distributes furniture from Nova to retailers including Nebraska Furniture Mart, part of Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) (BRK.B).

Warren Buffett with Nova LifeStyle president Tawny Lam at the Marcum MicroCap Conference 2012 in New York City.

Nebraska Furniture Mart is now expanding in high opportunity areas in the U.S., particularly Texas where it is constructing a $1 billion retail space that should provide a significant boost to Nova's revenue.

In 2012, Nova raised $5.6 million in two private placements and secured $8 million in lines of credit, to fund the construction of a new Chinese factory that is producing inexpensive furniture for Ikea International Group in China.

In April 2013, Nova paid $6.5 million to acquire Bright Swallow International Group Ltd (Bright Swallow), a furniture company with manufacturing facilities in China and a global customer base. The economic rationale behind the deal was simple: products can be manufactured cheaply in China but then sold at a premium in developed countries.

Bright Swallow posted revenue of just over $13 million for its fiscal year 2012; its urban-oriented, contemporary line of furniture complement Nova's products. The merger has given Nova substantially greater global reach, but with low overhead. By incorporating Bright Swallow, the parent company Nova has reaped manufacturing, marketing and supply chain economies of scale.

In April, Nova announced that fiscal year 2012 revenue reached $66.3 million, a whopping year-over-year increase of 53.6 percent from fiscal year 2011 revenue of $43.2 million.

Nova's North America sales racked up a year-over-year increase of $11.3 million, while China sales increased by $6.8 million. Sales in the Middle Kingdom accounted for approximately 78.5 percent of the company's total growth last year. Earnings remained stable at $5.4 million, for earnings per share (EPS) of $0.29.

For the six months ending June 30, 2013, Nova reported revenue of $34.1 million, compared to $27.1 million in the same period a year ago. Earnings remained essentially flat, at $2.4 million for EPS of $0.13.

Nova is expanding its e-commerce presence in China, a move that's paying off as that country's wobbly economy regains a sound footing.

E-commerce is a fast-growing retail sector in the Middle Kingdom. According to the technology consultancy Forrester Research, annual online retail sales in China will reach $159.4 billion in 2015, compared to $48.8 billion in 2010.

Another tailwind for consumer stocks such as Nova is the Chinese government's policy of encouraging domestic consumption and transitioning away from the economy's historic reliance on exports.

As evidence of Nova's rise, the company in August filed a listing application with NASDAQ, the approval of which is pending.

Caveat Emptor

Take note: Nova is a small-cap stock and as such remains vulnerable to the inherent ups-and-downs of cyclical consumer industries such as furniture manufacturing.

Notably, Nova LifeStyle has a low float of only 8.1 million shares that could pave the way for future volatility. However, that's also an advantage, because stocks with small floats can make a major move on the upside.

The company faces giant competitors, such as U.S.-based HNI Corp (HNI), which boasts a market cap of $1.72 billion and is better able to survive any economic shocks or downturns. However, HNI also has a trailing P/E of 29.8, making it a far pricier proposition for investors with less room for growth.

And although China's wobbly economy has regained its footing in the second half of this year, it could still hit unforeseen bumps that would derail Nova's growth strategy for the rest of this year and into 2014.

All of that said, aggressive investors looking for a high-growth play on rising consumer discretionary income should grab a seat on Nova. The stock of this small-cap furniture maker is substantially undervalued compared to the company's growth prospects and it should leave investors sitting pretty.



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